Markets have been moving slowly.  By the end of February, farmers are looking at the grain markets scratching their heads, wondering when the market will move in their favor.  Cash grain prices in Central Indiana have not changed much since fall delivery prices.

By the end of Friday, March 4, grains were higher.  Brazil had heavy rains towards the end of the week delaying their harvest progress. Political news in Brazil is also weighing in the markets. Their former president is under investigation.

A strong job report was reported this week. US employers added 242,000 workers in February, higher than then 200,000 expected.  US unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% in February.

Next week we are looking towards the USDA S&D report that will be released Wednesday, March 9 at 12 Eastern time.  I don't think we will see numbers change that much, bigger report will be on Thursday, March 31st for the USDA Prospective Plantings Report.

 

What are USDA Crop Reports?
The Crop Progress reports are weekly reports, ran April through November. They contain the progress of planting, growing and harvesting and crop conditions of various crops during that growing time frame.

Why are USDA Crop Reports important?
Provide information for projecting crop yields. Gives explanation on crop development and conditions.

Where does the USDA get their information?
There is an estimated 4,000 reports every week, on every Sunday.  The report comes out Monday afternoon.  It would seem simple for farmers to volunteer their information to the government.  Some willing, some not so willing, therefore the information would not be consistent. 


What do these weekly reports impact?
The reports impact the CME markets and results in price fluctuations. Before the report is released, many private analysts share their own projections.  This leads to many perceptions before the report is out, and sometimes the market will respond before the report is released. July is a very important month.  This month is very important growing time for corn and soybeans.  The old wives tale, "knee high by the fourth of July" does not apply.  Corn plant is more advanced at this stage, and looking and silking and pollination stages.  Soybeans filling pods, so weather, temperature and precipitation is very important. If weather is a big issue, the market will react, either from fear of the unknown or the confidence that a good or bumper crop was going to be harvested.

Is their information consistent? 
Crop Progress reports follows the stages of progress and growth of crops.  The crop conditions could include the effect of crop quality and the different stage of developments as well.  

What are the USDA markets? How do they come up with these numbers?

It is very hard to describe into one post everything that goes into the USDA reports. The Agricultural Marketing Service, AMA, has been conducting reports for over 90 years.   It is a very comprehensive, monthly report.  Reports come in from all over the United States and international locations from USDA officials. 

Reports include markets, prices, volume, and bushels.  Commodities included in the report are corn, beans, wheat, tobacco, cotton, fruits, for example. Certain fields are earmarked to be a representative field for the year.  No one outside the Washington, D.C. office is to know about the final numbers of the report until it is released to the public.  There are many USDA employees who work all night compiling the numbers into the report.  Until a few years ago, the report was released in the morning. Now it is released in the afternoon. 


A few years ago, actually it was four years ago, I traveled to Washington, DC with a group of ag professionals.  We were invited to watch the August 2010 USDA report being presented to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. 



 

Before we were led into the room for the presentation of the report, we were briefed in a separate conference room.  They explained us the procedure, gave us a USDA pass, and we left all forms of communication in the conference room.  All cell phones, tablets, etc were left in the middle of the table.  Then we toured a media room.  It wasn't time for the report to go public yet, but some had the numbers in front of them, entering the information into a computer.  It is entered into a decrypted data system, and that information is not released electronically until the published time.

Many people play a part of the report, and it is a very big process.  They also described the history of the report. Before computers, the report was shared via telephone.  Those reporting from DC were in a media room, standing in the middle. At the time of the report being released, they were allowed to go to the perimeter of the room and use the telephones. The USDA employees who gather the information for the report are not allowed to leave the designated areas of the USDA building until the report is released.  That means some work all night long.

I realize there is so much that goes into preparing each monthly USDA report. The results that come from these reports impact the grain markets because if the report numbers are not within private analyst estimates, it is impacted immediately.  Grain markets can go limit up or limit down if there is a big change in the USDA markets.  It doesn't happen every report, but it is possible. 

Tammy and Kendall Culp opened their farm to Jasper County officials. It was called a Dine and Discuss Event. Their gravel road lead us to their home and farm in the middle of corn and soybean fields. 




All the food served for dinner was grown in Jasper County.